NHL team tiers and expectations: Central Division

Two years ago, the Central Division was home to the Stanley Cup-champion Colorado Avalanche, and it’s possible the champ comes from this group again. But while the top of the division is talented, the middle is full of questions and the bottom is downright dreadful.

Today, we look at the Central and break the teams up into five tiers. Once again, this is not a ranking, and teams within the same tier are ordered alphabetically.

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TOP TIER: CREAM OF THE CROP

COLORADO AVALANCHE
Key additions: Ryan Johansen, Ross Colton, Miles Wood, Tomas Tatar, Jonathan Drouin
Key subtractions: JT Compher, Evan Rodrigues, Alex Newhook, Erik Johnson, Lars Eller, Jack Johnson

Expectations: Though last season ended in a first-round upset, the Avalanche are just a year removed from winning the Stanley Cup, and with so much star power atop the lineup — and after a summer spent adding some intriguing pieces — they have to remain in the top tier of the Central Division.

The salary cap pinched Nazem Kadri out of town as a UFA in 2022, but in 2023 the Avs brought in a number of players who either add playoff-friendly sandpaper or skillful upside. They appear to be a better team today than they were before the summer, though Gabriel Landeskog will still be out the entire season, with a hope he could return for the playoffs. And what a late addition he’d end up being.

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DALLAS STARS
Key additions: Matt Duchene, Craig Smith, Sam Steel
Key subtractions: Colin Miller, Max Domi, Joel Kiviranta

Expectations: You might forget that Dallas was the finalist in the 2020 bubble Stanley Cup Playoffs, which happened on the back of a suffocating team defence and not a ton of offence. Since then, the head coach has changed and with him, the whole style of play the team utilizes. From 2022 to 2023, the Stars went from the 30th-ranked offence to 13th, and it wasn’t because of massive roster turnover.

Along the way, a few young players have developed into real difference-makers (Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz), and Jake Oettinger has emerged as one of the league’s best netminders. After a couple down seasons after reaching that final, the Stars shot back into the Western Conference Final last season, which feels like the start of something sustainable. The Stars have taken the steps and have the pieces in place to contend, and they proved it in 2023.

SECOND TIER: CAN THEY IMPROVE UNDER SEVERE CAP PENALTIES?

MINNESOTA WILD
Key additions: Pat Maroon
Key subtractions: Matt Dumba, Sam Steel, Ryan Reaves, John Klingberg

Expectations: The Wild are in a tier of their own because they are in a unique situation of their own creation. The Wild very much are trying to be a contender and may be on to something after four straight playoff appearances. They had a top-three five-on-five offence and top-10 defence at five-on-five last season, plus Filip Gustavsson’s surprise emergence in net was a great complement to veteran Marc-Andre Fleury.

However, not only have the Wild failed to get out of the first round in any of those four seasons, they are now operating under a heavily reduced cap ceiling, thanks to past buyouts for Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. Those two combined still account for $14.743 million against the cap, and will do so through 2024-25, which really handcuffs GM Bill Guerin, even as the cap slowly begins to rise. It cost him a few players this past summer, and made it difficult to add anything back.

When those contracts come off the books, the Wild may be in position to strike and aggressively add to move up a tier. But for now, that’s a very difficult situation to deal with.

THIRD TIER: JEKYLL AND HYDE

ST. LOUIS BLUES
Key additions: Kevin Hayes, Jakub Vrana
Key subtractions: Thomas Greiss

Expectations: On paper, the Blues are still often thought of as a contender, though they’ve won only a single playoff series since winning the Cup in 2019. The reality of last season, where they missed the playoffs completely, forced GM Doug Armstrong into sell mode, during which time he added draft picks at the cost of playoff experience.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Blues kept all three of their first-round picks last summer to reload the pipeline. On the NHL roster, they made a couple low-risk bets and certainly have an eye on the playoffs again. But where do they fit on the scale exactly? Their blue-line, where four players are signed, is not the strongest and there were plenty of trade rumours there (even though five defencemen have no-trade clauses!). Jordan Binnington’s numbers have been getting worse every season since 2019. So, are the Blues anything close to a team that could breakthrough again, or are they securely in the mushy middle?

FOURTH TIER: THIS IS FINE

To start, this two-team tier can simply be summed up with this image:

WINNIPEG JETS
Key additions: Alex Iafallo, Gabe Vilardi, Laurent Brossoit
Key subtractions: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Sam Gagner, David Rittich

Expectations: The Patrik Laine trade tree grows as Pierre-Luc Dubois was dealt to Los Angeles for a handsome package of players the Jets hope will make them deeper and settle roster turnover. They bought out Blake Wheeler to get out from the last season of his expensive contract and to allow the dressing room culture to change. However, there are still a couple massive situations hanging over this team like a sword of Damocles: the pending free agencies of Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele.

Both have questioned their long-term futures with this team and with one playoff win in the past two years, it’s become obvious the Jets are a step or two below the real contenders in the West. How will those two see the team and will they walk themselves to free agency? At what point will GM Kevin Cheveldayoff, known for his deliberate approach to roster management, feel the need to act and get something back for his franchise cornerstones? On one hand, the Jets must still believe they can go on a run with this core if things just break right. On the other, it sure feels like it’s close to midnight for the group.

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NASHVILLE PREDATORS
Key additions: Ryan O’Reilly, Luke Schenn, Gustav Nyquist, Dennis Gurianov
Key subtractions: Ryan Johansen, Matt Duchene

Expectations: With Barry Trotz taking over from David Poile as the second GM in team history, there was anticipation Trotz would boldly and immediately change over this team to put his stamp on it. After all, the Predators haven’t won a playoff game in two years, missed out entirely last season, and seem to have been elevated by one player: goalie Juuse Saros. Perhaps a rebuild was on the horizon.

Well, we got it partially right. Trotz did put his stamp on the team and said goodbye to big-money vets Matt Duchene (buyout) and Ryan Johansen (trade). But instead of settling back into draft and develop mode, Nashville became the surprising landing spot for Ryan O’Reilly … who was then joined by a few other vet signings. It’s hard to see how the Predators will really contend with this roster (barring Saros dragging them along) and they may not be any better set up than last season. But the Preds won’t bottom out either and it’s not entirely obvious how they think Humpty Dumpty will be put back together again.

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FIFTH TIER: GOING TO BE ANOTHER LONG WINTER

ARIZONA COYOTES
Key additions: Jason Zucker, Alex Kerfoot, Nick Bjugstad, Sean Durzi, Matt Dumba
Key subtractions: Christian Fischer

Expectations: What else can we say about the Coyotes? Well, let’s start with the good news: Logan Cooley has turned pro and will likely be on this team after he cast doubt on it a few months ago. With the arena fiasco and how they’ve become the dumping ground for contracts, the team and its fan base needed something positive, so there is that development.

But 2023-24 will likely be much of the same for the Coyotes, who have one playoff appearance since 2012. Mullett Arena will again host a reduced capacity of fans and some of the shine is going to begin wearing off the novelty of that setup. The search for a new arena goes on, and until that gets resolved, the future of the whole franchise in this market is unclear. They have tons of draft picks, including their own first, of course, so they may be able to pick up another solid prospect in a 2024 draft class that is also being anticipated for the depth of skill available at the top.

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
Key additions: Taylor Hall, Nick Foligno, Corey Perry, Connor Bedard, Ryan Donato
Key subtractions: Jonathan Toews, Caleb Jones, Jujhar Khaira 

Expectations: It can’t be worse than last season because now they have their new cornerstone to build around for (they’re hoping) a generation. With the playoffs not a realistic goal, this winter will be all about what Connor Bedard does, and a Calder-contending first season is expected. The team has been wise to try to surround him with veteran knowhow, but there is little hope for any meaningful team improvement.

With Bedard in the fold, the real work begins now to rebuild the franchise. It’s “easy” to bottom out to get the player, and much harder to put the right pieces in place to successfully navigate back out of such a decisive rebuild. That’s GM Kyle Davidson’s challenge now, but it’s not going to happen in just a short few months.

More from Sportsnet

NHL team tiers and expectations: Atlantic Division

NHL team tiers and expectations: Pacific Division

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