One of the biggest pitfalls of any fantasy hockey draft is taking a player too high.
We’ve all been duped by someone who is coming off a strong season only to see them come back down to earth and make you quickly regret drafting them where you did. This doesn’t necessarily mean you should completely avoid a player you think will regress but the challenge is finding the right spot to draft them.
So, if there’s a player who just posted 80 points but there are signs it could be hard to duplicate, let someone else take the risk of overdrafting them. I find you really want to nail your first five picks and it’s smart to make any gambles later in the draft where there’s more room for error.
Sometimes it’s the players you pass on or don’t take that turn out to be the best decisions for your fantasy team.
1. Given how incredible Erik Karlsson’s season was in 2022-23, it would be almost impossible for him not to regress somewhat. The question is … by how much? Recording more than 100 points as a defenceman at 33 seems very hard to replicate, especially when you consider Karlsson’s injury history. Karlsson missed substantial time in three of the four prior seasons, so it wouldn’t be shocking if durability became an issue again.
Karlsson is now on a much stronger and more talented team though and that comes with pros and cons. The obvious benefit would be he has more talent around to help his numbers, but Karlsson may see his ice time drop with the Pittsburgh Penguins. He played nearly 26 minutes a night last season in San Jose, but with Kris Letang around, the Penguins may not need to lean on Karlsson as much. For instance, Timo Meier’s ice time fell by more than two minutes per game when going from the Sharks to the New Jersey Devils last year.
So, where to draft Karlsson? I wouldn’t reach for him in the first three rounds. His average draft position right now is around 39.6, which puts him inside the fourth round in a league with 10 or 12 teams and that seems about right to me. Karlsson is closer to 80 points this season if he stays healthy.
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2. Speaking of players approaching their mid-30s having a renaissance, I find it hard to believe Jamie Benn is going to be able to deliver another 75-plus point season at 34. Last year’s totals came on a 17.4 per cent shooting percentage, well above his career average and almost double his prior two campaigns. Benn will still have value in multi-cat leagues, but I’m not banking on another offensive explosion.
3. Jared McCann worries me some this year. He managed 40 goals in 2022-23 while shooting 19 per cent, a number that will almost certainly come down. McCann did have shooting percentages of 13.6, 15.1 and 15.6 in three of the previous four years, which makes me think his goal totals won’t fall too far. Still, I’d be drafting McCann as more of a 30-goal scorer than a 40-goal one.
4. Put Linus Ullmark in the same category as Karlsson in the sense he had such a great year that his numbers are going to have to come down, simply because they can’t get much better. How do you improve or even get close to a .938 save percentage and 1.89 goals-against average again?
You also have to consider that Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci have retired and players like Taylor Hall, Tyler Bertuzzi and Dmitry Orlov are no longer around. So, it’s going to be tough for Ullmark to win at a rate of 40-6-1 again. He’s also going to split time almost right down with Jeremy Swayman, which means he won’t give you the volume most of the other highly ranked goalies will.
Unless Ullmark slips into the fifth round or so, I probably wouldn’t take the chance.
5. Staying with the Boston Bruins, while I do have David Pastrnak ranked in the top five in my rankings, it is worth pointing out that minus Bergeron, Krejci and company, he’ll probably have a hard time reaching 60 goals again. He’s still an elite player, but maybe he’s closer to 50 goals and 100 points this season compared to what he delivered last year.
6. I promise I’m not picking on the Bruins, but the loss of Bergeron is really going to hurt. Perhaps no one is going to feel the effects more than Jake DeBrusk, who played more than 480 minutes last season at even strength with Bergeron. I would be shocked if DeBrusk scored at a 64-point pace again.
7. We already started to see a bit of regression from Bo Horvat when he arrived on Long Island last season, and I expect it to continue. Horvat scored at a 90-point pace in 2022-23 with the Vancouver Canucks and that dropped to a 44-point pace in New York. I think if Horvat can play most of the year with Mat Barzal, he’ll improve his numbers with the Isles. Still, he’s probably not close to a 70-point player and the best you should hope for is 60 if all goes well.
8. Filip Gustavsson is going to have the same issue as Ullmark, in that his numbers were so good last season that it’s going to be very difficult for them not to come down. His .931 save percentage will be tough to maintain and keep in mind, Gustavsson has only played 66 career games. With a sample size that small, it’s really tough to get a good read on a goalie. Marc-Andre Fleury is still in the mix too and will get his fair share of starts, so as much as I like Gustavsson as an option, I’m not reaching too high for him in drafts.
9. I don’t think Brady Skjei will be drafted in a lot of leagues, but his value as a streaming option this season likely won’t be as strong as it was in 2022-23. Skjei scored 18 times last year, which represents a third of his career total thanks to a shooting percentage of almost double his career average. The likelihood of Skjei scoring more than 10 times this season seems very low.
10. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins just might be the most polarizing player in drafts this year. There are arguments for and against regression, as his shooting percentage was high and more than half of his 104 points came on the power play.
The thing Nugent-Hopkins has going for him is he’s likely going to be playing with either McDavid or Draisaitl almost 100 per cent of the time and the power play should be just as potent. What is concerning, besides an inflated shooting percentage, is he led the league in secondary assists. Roman Josi also led the league in secondary assists two seasons ago when he nearly hit 100 points and his numbers came way down last season. Secondary assists are great but are not always sustainable.
I’d still be fairly confident in using a high pick on Nugent-Hopkins because if his totals drop by 20 points, you’re still getting an 85-point player. He has a lot of room to fall and still give you good value.
11. There’s always a danger of getting too enamoured with a player or team’s playoff run when fantasy draft time comes around, and I think Adin Hill could fall into that category. I don’t see Hill posting stats like he did in the postseason over 82 games, and Logan Thompson is also going to play plenty. If you’re planning to draft Hill don’t jump too early and try to get the Vegas tandem for insurance.
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12. Ivan Barbashev also had a great playoff run for Vegas, especially offensively. That said, Barbsahev has only really had one solid offensive season before and the odds of him scoring at a 60-point pace over a full season are slim. If he sticks with Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault all year that will really help him, but Barbashev is also a perfect candidate to move down the lineup. The hit production he gives you will probably make Barbashev worth rostering, but I’m not convinced he’ll also give you the offence you’re looking for.
13. The emergence of Barbashev likely means Chandler Stephenson moves down the lineup. Stephenson had good success in the first half last year with Eichel and Mark Stone but dropped off in the second half when the line was broken up. Stephenson will still probably have dual eligibility and good value in leagues with faceoffs, though I think his scoring totals take a step back in 2023-24.
14. It was no surprise to see Tyson Barrie’s numbers drop after arriving with the Nashville Predators. Barrie’s production had been added by the Oilers’ incredible power play and Nashville’s man advantage isn’t even in the same league. Josi was also sidelined for a significant chunk of Barrie’s time with the Predators last year, so when he’s healthy this season that is going to hurt Barrie even more, bumping him down to the second power-play unit.
15. What a season for Josh Morrissey. He posted 76 points after never even hitting 40 in a season before. Morrissey is an interesting case because his shooting percentage wasn’t substantially higher than his career average, and his overall ice time didn’t go up that much. He did, however, play over a minute more on the power play than he did in 2021-22. Still, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Blake Wheeler are gone and there is a possibility more talented Winnipeg Jets players could be dealt as well, which would hurt Morrissey’s production. I think he’s going to regress a bit, but Morrissey might be able to remain a 65-point blueliner.
16. One of the most telling signs of regression is shooting percentage, and Andrei Kuzmenko had a whopper last season. Everything went in for him, scoring 39 goals on only 143 shots for 27.3 per cent. That will definitely drop, but the good news is Kuzmenko is still going to play with Elias Pettersson, and he has plenty of room to increase his shot volume. Let’s say he gets his shot totals up to around 200 and if his scoring does regress, he could still be a very useful 30-goal forward. I’m not drafting him with the assumption he’ll get close to 40 goals again, though.
17. Training camps are underway and there are already a few things of note. It’s still early of course, but Bertuzzi at least started with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner during initial line drills. That’s a good sign if you’re planning on taking/keeping him. Bertuzzi has 30-goal and 60-point potential with that deployment.
18. Something important to point out about the Carolina Hurricanes goaltending situation that Elliotte Friedman touched on in a recent 32 Thoughts column, is the Canes’ lack of an AHL affiliate. The main question this brings up is: Where is Pyotr Kochetkov going to play if Carolina stays healthy in the crease? This leads me to believe Kochetkov, even though he is waivers exempt, will be up with the Hurricanes for a big chunk of the year and maybe Antti Raanta ends up getting dealt at some point.
19. Andrei Svechnikov noted there’s a good chance he’ll be ready for opening night but it’s not a guarantee. Either way, it seems like Svechnikov shouldn’t miss much time even if he isn’t ready to go right away, which shouldn’t really impact his draft stock. Svechnikov has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, which has held him back from a true breakout campaign. If he can play close to 80 games though, he’ll have huge value in multi-cat leagues with his underrated hit production.
20. On the flip side, it sounds like Logan Couture may not be ready for Game 1, as the San Jose Sharks forward is dealing with a lower-body injury. Although Couture has a low ceiling, he’s a safe pick that should easily give you 60 points and 200 shots. Perhaps Mikael Granlund moves up to the top six to start the season if Couture isn’t ready to go.
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