NHL Playoff Push: Buyers, sellers and teams in between heading to trade deadline

With the midway point and the NHL All-Star Game in the rearview mirror, the next big day on the NHL calendar is March 8 and the trade deadline.

At this point, we know who some of the buyers will be. Vancouver has already been aggressive on this front, and Winnipeg jumped into the centre market as well. But we’d expect a few other division leaders to at least dip their toe in these waters in the coming weeks — but given how tight the standings are in so many places across the league, just how invested these teams get in trade could be determined by their performance in the next four weeks.

That goes doubly so for the mass of teams in the running, but maybe not favourites to go on any sort of run. With such a tightly packed standings board, it could be that more teams feel emboldened to take a shot thinking that once you get into the playoffs anything can happen. Or, with the salary cap set to begin rising considerably after this season, teams that have plenty of picks and prospects may elect to wait and go bigger in the summer, or beyond.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs picture comes into greater focus after the deadline, so that’s when we’ll drill in deeper to key games and trends down the stretch. But for now, the playoff picture is important in how it may shape the trade deadline.

So, in our first look at the playoff picture, we’re considering which teams to watch closest from the buying category, to the sellers and all the teams caught in between with lots to still figure out.

As the following weeks develop, we’ll revisit how the market is shaping up.

BUYERS TO WATCH

Boston Bruins: Believed to have been interested in Elias Lindholm, the Bruins have struck out in the centre market so far but will be in the mix for various things until the March 8 deadline. The problem for Boston is that, after pushing chips in around this time for several years, their collection of tradable assets has diminished. They do not have a 2024 first-rounder (traded last season to Detroit for Tyler Bertuzzi) second-rounder (traded for Hampus Lindholm in 2022) or third-rounder (traded in last year’s Dmitri Orlov deal). They also don’t have next year’s second-rounder. Boston has picked in the first round just twice in the past five years (Fabian Lysell, John Beecher) so their prospect cupboard is rather bare of high-end futures. Still, in a tightly packed conference, Boston has been a step ahead and will be seeking to buy in some capacity.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Similar to Boston — though without the playoff success — the Maple Leafs have been deadline buyers for so long that they aren’t exactly flush with young assets. Fraser Minten or Easton Cowan might be their two most sought-after prospects in trade, and they do still have their own 2024 first-round pick, however, their 2025 first is already gone (in the Jake McCabe trade) so trading out of 2024 removes the Leafs from the next two drafts. The big question facing Leafs Nation right now is: should management make a big move to add to this team, or is this a year to pass on the deadline? Toronto could just look to add along the edges, especially depth on defence, but is anything bigger in the offing? Chris Tanev? A scoring winger? Would they consider a rental at all, or is this just not the season for it? The Leafs have a core in its prime, but some looming big decisions on central pieces such as John Tavares and Mitch Marner. Given how wide open the East is, will they still throw caution to the wind and take a shot with this team?

SELLERS TO WATCH

Pittsburgh Penguins: Though Pittsburgh is five points out of the second wild card spot they have three games in hand of the Detroit Red Wings, who currently reside there. The Penguins are also five points out of third place in the Metropolitan Division and have four games in hand of the Philadelphia Flyers. So they’re closer to making it than they appear. But remember, this franchise hasn’t won a post-season series since 2018 and do we think they can go on a run if they manage to get in?

The Penguins and GM Kyle Dubas are in a near-impossible spot, a fringe team with the urgency to win in the final years of their elite core. How the team performs in the coming weeks surely will influence Dubas’ path and the biggest call he’ll have to make is on pending UFA, and Sidney Crosby’s linemate, Jake Guentzel. The 28-year-old is having one of the best seasons of his career, but unless he signs before March 8, the Penguins can’t risk losing him for nothing in the summer. Pittsburgh also has a depleted prospect base and sent their 2024 first-rounder to San Jose in last summer’s Erik Karlsson deal. If they sell, the Penguins could wind up being something of a kingmaker, with Reilly Smith another candidate to move as he’s struggled to find the same success in Pittsburgh that he had in Vegas.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Well out of the playoff picture yet again after making an effort to add pieces that’d help them get back in the frame, there are a whole host of questions around Columbus. Can they find a new home for goalie Elvis Merzlikins after he requested a trade, given his contract ($5.4M through 2026-27) and the fact teams know the Jackets are in a position of weakness? How will they react to David Jiricek voicing his frustration in the media? Will they see what rental centres have gone for and consider offering up Boone Jenner, who has two more seasons left on a $3.75M AAV deal? Would they consider any other, bigger, changes? Heck, is this front office crew led by John Davidson and Jarmo Kekalainen — on the job for a decade — on the hot seat?

TEAMS IN BETWEEN

New Jersey Devils: After a breakthrough 112-point season, the Devils are just trying to hang in the playoff race this season and have dealt with injuries to key players such as Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton. A second-half surge could very well be in the cards for a team this talented, so they’re not a seller per se, but they’re not necessarily going to be an aggressive buyer either.

“I’m looking to improve the team,” newly extended GM Tom Fitzgerald said before the break. “There are areas I’d like to improve whether it’s depth defencemen, whether it’s looking in the goaltending market.”

That latter position is the most in question for the Devils, who sit second-last to only the Ottawa Senators in team save percentage. And while there is a range of goalies who are theoretically available in trade, it’s not a position that gets moved around much in this way, at the deadline. John Gibson, Elvis Merzlikins and, perhaps, Jacob Markstrom are a few starters who have come up in trade rumours.

Ottawa Senators: The pre-season promise faded immediately and playoff hopes have been dashed for weeks (or months), but while the Ottawa Senators are in a seller’s standings position and will likely seek to move a pending UFA such as Vladimir Tarasenko or Dominik Kubalik, they’re also thinking of ways to get this group on track quicker and positioning them to come back stronger next season. As a result, the Sens have been connected to Calgary’s Chris Tanev, who himself is a pending UFA and perhaps a better off-season target for GM Steve Staios. More than just Tanev, however, rumours that the Senators are looking for responsible veteran players were given credence at Staios’ pre-all-star avail.

“You can’t have enough leadership and experience, I think that’s certainly an area I’d like to look at,” Staios said. “Also the fact we’re looking at complete players as well, 200-foot players. Those are the types of things we’re looking at. The market will dictate. There may be an opportunity at the deadline and, if not, then we’ll continue to work on it and maybe there’s an opportunity in the off-season.”

Some believe, too, that the Senators may massage their core to shake it up. Primarily, this has focused on the defence where Ottawa has three right-shot blueliners in their prime with Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun. Sanderson and Chabot are signed long-term, but Chychrun only has one season left on his bargain contract and can sign an extension as of July 1. Could he become an odd-man out or, gasp, could the Senators entertain a Chabot trade instead?

Philadelphia Flyers: Sitting third in the Metropolitan Division, the Flyers nonetheless may be leaning more towards being in the “seller” category of teams than a buyer seeking to enhance its post-season hopes. Since Jan. 1, they have a .500 points percentage that ranks 20th in the league and is a reminder that this team still has long-term work to do and is not a guarantee to reach the playoffs. Pending UFA defencemen Sean Walker and Nick Seeler have been raised as trade candidates and attractive targets for the many teams that will look to beef up their back end.

Even more interesting is that, lately, centre Scott Laughton’s name has come up in rumours again. His season has been inconsistent and his usage has fallen to the fourth line recently, but Laughton is a tough, penalty-killing pivot and comes with the added value of being on a good contract ($3 million) for another two seasons past this one. With top centres Sean Monahan and Elias Lindholm already dealt from this centre market, Laughton could be an intriguing middle-six target, and the Flyers may part with him if the price is right. The fact 25-year-old centre Ryan Poehling signed a two-year extension in January perhaps makes it more palatable for the Flyers. Morgan Frost’s name has been out there as well, but Philadelphia likely won’t move more than one of their centres … if any. Even though they’re in a traditional buyer’s position in the standings, the Flyers are more “in between” given their circumstance and may trend to being a seller.

“I don’t want to speak out of turn with Danny (Briere), but if it’s a situation where it’s a really good asset that comes back, it’s going to happen. We cannot lose sight of what we’re doing here,” head coach John Tortorella said recently. “If it’s the proper asset that’s coming back, and we’re going to lose one of the players that are a big part of this, in building this right now, and where we are this season, there will be no hesitation.”

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BUYERS TO WATCH

Vancouver Canucks: The best team in the NHL has already got a jump on the trade market, acquiring Nikita Zadorov from Calgary in 2023 and then going back to Craig Conroy to get Elias Lindholm last week. Are the Canucks done? Perhaps, but as the Lindholm deal was nearing completion rumours circulated that Patrik Allvin was also trying to pry Tanev out of there. This is the best shot Vancouver has had to go on a real Stanley Cup run in over a decade and you can bet 74-year-old president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford will be looking to optimize their chances in 2024. The advantage a team like Vancouver has on buyers such as Colorado or Boston or Edmonton who have been in this position for a few seasons, is that the Canucks are flush with futures. They may have to move money out to make something happen — as they did moving Andrei Kuzmenko in the Lindholm deal — which is why the likes of Nils Hoglander or Zadorov, again, are mentioned as possible trade pieces.

Colorado Avalanche: Always a rumoured buyer, the Avalanche maybe haven’t gone as hard at the deadline as others in their position recently — after all, they have made six first-round picks in the past five years — but a few of their moves have been wildly successful, from a Nazem Kadri pickup that was so key to their Stanley Cup win, to Artturi Lehkonen blossoming here in a way he hadn’t before. Colorado needs forward depth and actually made an addition along those lines by recently signing Zach Parise. The Avs have all of their first-round picks in hand, though don’t have a second-rounder again until 2026.

Edmonton Oilers: It’s Ken Holland’s last season as an NHL general manager and this Oilers team may be his best positioned Edmonton team yet to go on a serious run. The acquisition of Corey Perry and callup of Dylan Holloway last month effectively added two-thirds of a bottom-six line without having to give up anything and you can feel confident that won’t be the only move made. Attention could turn to the defence, which could still use another second-to-third pair guy who could be attainable especially if Edmonton were to make someone available like Philip Broberg or Xavier Bourgault, plus the Oilers have all of their own first-round picks still in the quiver. We’d be shocked if that were still the case after March 8.

SELLERS TO WATCH

San Jose Sharks: Long, long out of the race and with an eye on drafting Macklin Celebrini in June, GM Mike Grier and the Sharks will surely be looking to shave off what they can from the pro roster if it returns them any sort of futures. Kevin Labanc, Mike Hoffman and Anthony Duclair are three pending UFAs who would add some depth of scoring to any contending team; injured Mario Ferraro (undisclosed) is the team’s ice time leader, but might be the piece that gets San Jose its biggest return if he’s not out too long since he has two more years on a $3.25M AAV contract; and goalies Kaapo Kahkonen (pending UFA) and MacKenzie Blackwood (one more season at $2.35M) could be tandem/backup options.

Calgary Flames: A lot of their work has already been done with Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov gone, so even though the Flames are only three points out of a playoff spot they should have a one-track mind to move out whatever isn’t nailed down with a contract extension. Chris Tanev may be up next, but what about Noah Hanifin, who has had hot-and-cold contract negotiations all season? Calgary will be hoping to recoup a first-rounder for 34-year-old Tanev and should get something more than that for 27-year-old Hanifin — the question is how high can that price go if a signing can also be arranged with an acquiring team? And we also can’t forget that while so much focus has been on Calgary’s pending UFAs this season, GM Craig Conroy may look to flip other pieces. Andrei Kuzmenko waived his no-trade clause to come to Calgary, but if he shows well immediately, could they get another team to buy in on his goal-scoring potential? Dan Vladar may be nice to move in theory, but his performance (.888 save percentage) and contract term into next season aren’t all that attractive, so is there any world where a team knocks on the door and offers the world for Jacob Markstrom?

TEAMS IN BETWEEN

Los Angeles: The Kings were supposed to take another step up this season and be thought of as a Stanley Cup contender. Nearly halfway into the season, Cam Talbot was one of the better performing goalies in the league. The Pierre-Luc Dubois off-season addition looked to give Los Angeles envious depth down the middle. And, early on at least, the Kings looked to be hitting on all these expectations, but a wild slide down the standings in the past month-plus led GM Rob Blake to fire his coach and now he’s faced with several questions about his roster. Dubois has struggled and been used on the fourth line; Talbot hasn’t won a game since Dec. 23, which exposes their need for another netminder; and Drew Doughty has called out his team for its lack of effort. Arthur Kaliyev, a second-round pick from 2019, can’t find his way into a regular spot with this lineup and has come up in trade rumours. The Kings have games in hand of the teams around them, but now they have to win those games to keep distance, else making the playoffs may not happen at all. We thought coming in that Los Angeles would be a surefire buyer, even at the fringes, now we wonder if Blake is on the hot seat. “Everything we dictate from this point going forward is based off wins and losses,” he said.

Nashville Predators: Tied with St. Louis in points, the Predators have played more games than any other team in the Western wild card hunt, but the next month will surely influence which way GM Barry Trotz could go — and he could go in two radically different directions still.

“I’m sort of preparing for both. Going into this year I thought it was going to be a real difficult year,” Trotz said recently on The Jeff Marek Show. “If we’re at the trade deadline and we’re right there I have no problem adding something to our team because these guys have done a really good job of keeping us in the playoff hunt and I’d like to help that group.”

The flip side is this: Nashville lost its last three games before the all-star break and don’t play again until their bye week ends this weekend. If it continues to go sour here, they could have the types of players on offer who are usually attractive to some degree around the deadline. As far as depth goes, Trotz pointed out that he has four pending UFA forwards making less than a million dollars (Kiefer Sherwood, Michael McCarron, Thomas Novak and Denis Gurianov). We’d also point out Tyson Barrie is a pending UFA as is Alexandre Carrier on the back end, though they make $4.5M and $2.5M respectively. The Predators are already retaining salary on Ryan Johansen and Matias Ekholm, so they can only do that one more time.

What we’re all wondering is if the Predators do fall out of the picture, would they entertain the idea of trading cornerstone netminder Juuse Saros if a haul is forthcoming? Saros makes $5M against the cap through next season and though he’s become an established elite player at the position, he’s not been at his best this season with a .903 save percentage and a minus-6.0 goals saved above expected (per MoneyPuck) that ranks 71st of 91 goalies this season. There would be no discount coming in a trade, however.

“If we’re falling out and if it’s not happening then I’ll have some assets that are everywhere from affordable I’d say to short term,” Trotz explained.

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