Scout’s Analysis: How the Maple Leafs should approach the NHL trade deadline

At the mid-point of the regular season, every NHL team will be conducting pro and amateur meetings in the coming days. Some have already completed the process.

Pro scouts have been busy assembling lists of “priority” players in their territories. They will be recommending players to target for trade in hopes of improving their NHL roster. In some cases, they will advise upper management to steer clear of certain players and look elsewhere to fill a need.

My goal in this article — and others in the days ahead — is to provide a look into the conversations that go on behind closed doors at scouting meetings.

Ultimately, I’m putting you – our reader – in the general manager’s chair.

It’s my job, as a scouting director, to provide you the pros and cons of adding or subtracting from our roster and organization. I’m going to try and be as thorough as possible. At the end of the process, I will conclude with my recommendations. It’s up to you to decide how to best position our group and organization moving forward.

Here are my observations, and recommendations, for the Toronto Maple Leafs:

PROSPECTS

My experience in these kind of meetings is that the Director of Player Development generally begins with a status update of our prospects. For me, when I was in Florida with the Panthers, I worked closely with ex-Leaf Bryan McCabe on these sorts of things.

Without breaking down every player in the system, I have selected five of Toronto’s top prospects who I believe would be of interest to other NHL clubs and what role they project to play when they arrive.

Dennis Hildeby, Goaltender

Huge in the net (6-foot-5, 209 pounds). Better than average athleticism and coordination for his stature. Good feet. Moves laterally effectively. Trending towards second-tier NHL starter.

Easton Cowan, Forward

The Leafs’ first-round pick in 2023 (28^th overall), Cowan is scoring at a very high rate in the OHL with 16 goals and 34 assists in 28 games. Cowan plays quick and fast. He’s not shy about battling in the trenches and driving to the net. He projects as a middle-six forward who can be deployed in a variety of roles and produce, at worst, secondary offence.

Fraser Minten, Forward

Minten started this season with the Leafs after a solid training camp and he will be turning pro full time next season. He was traded from Kamloops to Saskatoon in the WHL shortly after Toronto sent him back to junior. Minten has produced seven goals and 16 assists in 17 WHL games this season. He projects as a third line NHL forward who can penalty kill and pitch in with some secondary offence as well.

Topi Niemela, Defenceman

Niemela is having a nice season at the AHL level with the Toronto Marlies. The right-shot blueliner is best described as a two-way transitional defenceman who can quarterback the power play. Niemela has produced six goals and 15 assists in 31 games.

Noah Chadwick, Defenceman

Chadwick is having a nice year playing for Lethbridge in the WHL, where he’s part of the leadership group. His offence has spiked dramatically and he’s being used in all situations. The 6-foot-4, 201-pound, left shot blueliner projects as a two-way defenceman at the pro level. He’s capable with the puck on his stick and his skating continues to evolve.

Overall Prospect Value

Toronto’s cupboards aren’t flush with prospects at every position who project to be NHL players. This group of five has a legitimate chance to make it, but it’s important to keep in mind that other teams will value these prospects differently than the Leafs do.

The fact the Leafs organization doesn’t have a ton of depth puts the team in a bit of a position of weakness. If they were to trade out one of these prospects, there isn’t a sure fire second layer in the pipeline. They also don’t have a ton of draft picks to rebuild that pipeline with.

DRAFT CAPITAL

The Leafs’ draft board isn’t ideal. Over the next three drafts the organization currently owns the following draft slots:

The going rate to acquire top end players at the trade deadline always starts with a first round pick. It’s not inconceivable to think a player like Calgary Flames defenceman Chris Tanev would cost, at least, a first-round pick. And there’s a real chance there could be a bidding war for Tanev that will drive up the cost of acquiring the shot blocking warrior.

If Toronto trades away another first-round pick this season it will further strain the organization’s lack of prospect depth. It’s a risky proposition.

ANALYZING THE CURRENT MAPLE LEAFS

Before making any grand conclusions about what the Leafs should, or shouldn’t, do with their prospect pool around the deadline, we first have to look at what shape the pro roster is in.

The Forwards

It’s important to review trends, habits, and results of a team over a long period of time. It’s never wise to judge a group on a five-, or 10-game segment.

With that in mind, here are some things to consider about Toronto’s forwards:

• The Leafs, like all teams, are built around a core of players. Their “core four” forwards provide the bulk of the scoring — how Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner and William Nylander perform on a nightly basis drives results.

• Over the past 15-game segment, Toronto has matched up against eight non-playoff teams and seven teams in playoff position. Their record in those games is 6-7-2.

Here’s how the “core four” have performed in that segment:

For comparison, let’s look at the Florida Panthers recently, a team the Maple Leafs are chasing in the Atlantic Division. Over Florida’s last 15-game segment their record is 10-4-1 and their core player stats versus playoff and non-playoff squads looks like this:

• There is some better news in terms of how Toronto’s second-tier forward group has performed over the past 15 games. The secondary scorers aren’t providing a ton of offence, but they are providing better defensive results against opponents in the top 16.

• The offensive contribution from the rest of Toronto’s forward group falls off pretty dramatically. The rest of the forward group has played 209 games combined and produced 28 goals and 38 assists.

• The entire Leafs forward group is a combined plus-11 on the year. Calle Jarnkrok leads the team with a plus-13 rating and Ryan Reaves at minus-11 is the worst. The “core four” forwards are a combined plus-14 overall.

For comparison: The entire Vancouver Canucks forward group is a combined plus-153 on the year.

• NHL coaches run set plays from face-offs in all three zones, so another positive for Toronto is that their centres are doing a nice job winning draws. John Tavares leads the way with a 61 per cent success rate. Auston Matthews clocks in with a winning percentage of 53. Even Max Domi (52 per cent) and David Kampf (51 per cent) come out ahead.

• While I understand and appreciate there are some concerns about this forward group’s depth and effectiveness, in the big picture this is not an area I would recommend the Leafs prioritize addressing at the deadline. They aren’t swimming in tradable assets to begin with and, to me, have more pressing needs elsewhere…

The Defencemen

• The Leafs’ defence is led offensively by Morgan Rielly, who has seven goals and 28 assists.

• Rielly averages over 24 minutes a game and is deployed in all situations. He matches up against top opponents and has a plus-2 rating.

• Jake McCabe is second in defence scoring with 15 points. He’s also contributed 78 hits.

• A nice surprise has been Simon Benoit. He’s been getting between 17 and 20 minutes of ice time with even strength and penalty kill responsibilities. Benoit leads this defence group with 80 hits and he’s only played 28 games. Benoit isn’t the most fluid skater or playmaker, but he’s more than answered the bell in a time of need for the team.

• Veterans TJ Brodie and Mark Giordano give what they can when their number is called. Giordano’s foot speed and endurance is put to the test against high end skill teams that play fast. Brodie is a better skater than Giordano, but he too has paced himself depending on the opponent. Both players are proficient shot blockers.

• The entire Leafs defence has combined to play 254 man games so far this season. They have scored 13 goals and added 76 assists. They have been credited with 336 hits and 463 shot blocks, and are plus-17 as a group.

For comparison: The Winnipeg Jets’ defence group have played 261 games combined and have scored 19 goals and 79 assists. They have also been credited with 372 hits, 384 shot blocks and are plus-102 as a group.

• If the Leafs are going to be buyers, I could see them starting with the defence corps.

The goaltenders

On balance, the goaltending is easier to breakdown. These statistics speak for themselves — it’s a concerning area for the Leafs, especially given their starter is currently injured with an uncertain timeline to return:

Other notable observations:

• The Leafs have 13 regulation time victories in 42 games played. That’s more than just seven NHL teams.

• They have four OT victories in 3-on-3 time, and four shootout wins. Of course, neither of those will be played in the playoffs.

Conclusions and trade deadline recommendations:

• In its current form, this group should have enough to be a playoff team.

• However, over a long segment of games and considering their number of regulation time wins, the Leafs have not shown that they should be classified as top Stanley Cup contenders like other teams in Florida, Colorado, Winnipeg, and even the defending champions from Vegas.

• Toronto’s most recent effort, a regulation time loss in Edmonton, could be described as the best version of their group. They competed extremely hard as a team, but ultimately ran out of gas and broke down at the most important time of the game – protecting a lead in the third period on the road against a top flight opponent.

• Sacrificing further draft capital, or prospects, from an already thin pool feels like a reach at this stage. This is a good team, not a great team.

I recommend standing pat with what they have and regrouping in the off-season, when bigger choices need to be made on free agents, major contract extensions and the makeup of the whole group. The organization doesn’t have the draft capital, or prospect depth, to spend on acquisitions at this trade deadline. It feels like they have more than one hole to plug and not enough putty to stop the leaks. They can use their pending UFAs as “own rentals” to accomplish the goal of being a playoff team and seeing where it takes them.

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Not liking my reccomendations?

Understanding it’s important to provide an alternative option and that, given the team’s goals, they may look to buy something anyway at the deadline, here are some names who could help the Leafs if they can make the contracts work under the salary cap:

Marc-Andre Fleury

He’s clearly nearing the end of a storied career, but if the Leafs aren’t convinced that Joseph Woll is going to be healthy enough to compete at the hardest time of the year, they might have to consider a goaltender to play alongside Martin Jones.

Fleury is on an expiring contract that costs $3.5M against the cap.

If Minnesota is out of the playoff race, would they consider moving Fleury to the Leafs for the end of Ilya Samsonov’s year?

The money would be a wash. The cost of doing business would likely cost Toronto their third-round pick (from the NYI) and a prospect – perhaps Topi Niemela. It’s not something I would recommend, but I am outlining a ballpark price for the player.

Chris Tanev

As mentioned above, the price to acquire top end players at the trade deadline always starts with a first round pick. It’s not inconceivable to think a valued player like Tanev would cost, at least, a first-round pick, and that a bidding war for his services would drive up the price from there.

One thing is certain, Calgary will have to retain 50 per cent of Tanev’s $4.5 million AAV in any transaction with the Leafs.

Another obstacle in this hypothetical trade is the fact a third team would likely have to get involved in the transaction to make the money fit the puzzle.

At the end of the day a Tanev trade to the Leafs may look something like this:

• Calgary trades Tanev to Chicago and retains 50 per cent of his AAV ($2.25 million)

• Chicago trades Tanev to Toronto and retains 50 per cent of what’s left of Tanev’s AAV ($1.125 million)

• Toronto trades one of their three fifth-round picks to Chicago for Tanev.

• Toronto trades a first-round pick (2024), Conor Timmins, Nick Roberston and a seventh-round pick (Ottawa) to Calgary for a sixth-round pick (2024).

Again, this is not something I would recommend at the deadline. Tanev would hold value to the Leafs, but it might be better for them in the long-run to hope he makes it to free agency and take a run at adding him there.

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