Why the next seven games are critical in Oilers’ sour season

It’s Nov. 7 and the Edmonton Oilers are six points out of a playoff spot.

That leaves them as Canada’s worst team and, in fact, one of the worst in the NHL, better than only the lowly San Jose Sharks who may wind up being historically awful. So, ya, not much of a silver lining there.

Is it early? On the one hand, yes, it still is. Edmonton has 71 games remaining and six points doesn’t seem like a lot of ground to cover. Even considering the loser point makes it harder for teams to make up ground, the Oilers are exactly the type of team that could claw it all back. After all, this team is 78-39-13 under this head coach, Jay Woodcroft, and also went 18-2-1 in the final quarter last season after acquiring Mattias Ekholm.

But on the other hand, it is quickly getting late in the season and the American Thanksgiving weekend that arrives at the end of this month is an important benchmark.

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Since 2013-14 (and not including either the COVID interrupted 2019-20, or the shortened 2020-21 season), 98 of 128 teams that were in a playoff spot on this holiday wound up clinching a playoff position in April. That’s 76.6 per cent so, generally, three or four teams are able to make the climb back from the outside.

But, of course, that climb gets harder the further you’re out. Most of those 30 teams that did climb back into the playoffs were within three points of a spot at the American Thanksgiving weekend. Every so often someone surprises from further out and in 2018-19 there was a particularly notable one: St. Louis was seven points out that season and, in fact, were even at the bottom of the league in points when the calendar flipped to 2019. After that, they went on a historically great run to a Stanley Cup title.

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But a turnaround like that is the exception. According to Sportsnet Stats, in the salary cap era, just four teams that were six or more points out at American Thanksgiving were able to clinch a playoff spot five months later: The 2018-19 Blues, 2015-16 Flyers, 2013-14 Stars and 2007-08 Capitals.

That brings us to the Edmonton Oilers, who face a vitally important seven-game stretch that will determine if they need to be almost historically great just to qualify for the playoffs, or put themselves into a much more manageable situation a quarter of the way into the season.

There are major questions about the goaltending, the defensive system, the depth scoring and the coach, but a good stretch here will undoubtedly quiet those calls for now. But another sub-.500 (or worse) run in the next two weeks and who knows what will happen?

Here’s a look at Edmonton’s run of games up until the American Thanksgiving and the near-quarter mark of the season.

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Nov. 9 at San Jose: This game looms absolutely huge. The Sharks are tracking to be the worst team of the salary cap era and, perhaps, ever. Their GM Mike Grier even spoke to the players and then media after the Sharks allowed 10 goals two games in a row. You think it’s bad in Edmonton right now, it’s BAD in San Jose. If the Oilers can’t break a slump in this game the discourse is going to get really ugly on Friday.

Nov. 11 at Seattle: After getting into the playoffs last season and upsetting the Avalanche, the Kraken are shuffling along at 4-6-2 with a minus-11 goal differential. But their team save percentage is 13th in the league at 5-on-5. They struggle on the PK, ranking 24th in the league there, so maybe Edmonton can find an advantage there.

Nov. 13 vs. New York Islanders: At 5-2-3 the Islanders’ .650 points percentage is ninth-best in the league and they have gotten at least one point in their past five games. They haven’t been as defensively stout so far this season, allowing 35.6 shots against per game (31st in the league) and 29th when measured by expected goals against per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 action. However, their goaltending is one of the better tandems in the league. Backup Semyon Varlamov is tied for second in the league in Goals Saved Above Expected, per MoneyPuck.

Nov. 15 vs. Seattle: Another game against division rival Kraken — if the Oilers dropped both of these the direct impact on their path up in the Pacific Division would be devastating.

Nov. 18 at Tampa Bay: At 5-3-4 you can see the Lightning still have it at the top of the lineup, but they’re really missing the injured Andrei Vasilevskiy now. When they get him back, look out. Oh, and about that, Tampa coach Jon Cooper said Vasilevskiy was on track to return and pegged a window between the American Thanksgiving weekend and the beginning of December. “I don’t know, I’ll be disappointed if it is early December,” Cooper said. “Hopefully it’s a little earlier. We were kind of shooting for that Thanksgiving time.” Imagine if he got back for the start of this Lightning homestand?

Nov. 20 at Florida: The Panthers would be coming back off a California road trip here, while the Oilers would already be in the state so the conditions could be ripe for Edmonton here. Florida, too, has been staying afloat despite injuries to a couple of key players, Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour, but have suggested they both could return as early as this game.

Nov. 22 at Carolina: The high-event Canes would surely test Edmonton’s porous defence right now, but they also have concerns in net with all three goalies under a .900 save percentage. At least Carolina would get to this game after getting a three-day breather, so they could be fresh whereas the Oilers will be in the midst of a busy road trip — and quite possibly some intense pressure.

The past two years in the Western Conference, the second wild card team has finished with 95 and 97 points, meaning Edmonton would have to accumulate at least 90 points in 71 games to barely get in. And, again, if a team is capable of pulling this back, it’s the Oilers.

But this skid cannot go on much longer and, outside of the Sharks, there are no soft touches in this next stretch of games. If the Oilers don’t get at least four wins or nine points here their early-season hole might get too big for even Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to dig out of.

Their season may very well rest on these next seven games.

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