Five teams that could define the NHL trade market in 2024

It’s about the time of year when trade rumours really pick up steam and we get an idea of who’s buying, selling and still deciding what the plan is.

Last week we rolled out our first list of 25 trade candidates to watch, with another list coming in early February. Some names will surely change as market forces shift and there’s always a surprise or two to discuss.

But beyond the March 8 trade deadline, this summer figures to be an intriguing one on the transaction front. With the salary cap set to rise by about $4 million for the first time in years — and another healthy hike on the horizon in 2025-26 — teams will be more free to manoeuvre than they have been since everything stopped in March of 2020.

Some business will get done at the deadline, but we wanted to also consider out further than that. There are teams out there who have smoke around them, but who may be better off waiting until the summer to make a big splash. One or two of them may jump the gun and surprise us before the deadline, as the Ducks and Flyers did last week, but we’re getting an idea of which teams may come to define the market in 2024.

Here’s our look at the teams shaping up to be the most interesting, whether by March 8 or beyond:

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS

The situation: This Blue Jackets front office, led by John Davidson and Jarmo Kekalainen, has made several attempts to advance the roster out of a rebuild — from acquiring Damon Severson, Ivan Provorov and, yes, Erik Gudbranson to the back end, to getting Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine to add a dynamic aspect to the front lines.

Alas, at 13-21-9 Columbus is second last in the Eastern Conference. Their No. 1 goalie, Elvis Merzlikins, is disgruntled as 24-year-old Daniil Tarasov is given starts. That front office is perhaps on the hot seat not just for the team’s on-ice results, but also for the decision to hire the divisive Mike Babcock and how that quickly unravelled before he coached even a single game.

Pieces they could trade: Elvis Merzlikins, Jack Roslovic, Alexandre Texier, Patrik Laine, Andrew Peeke, Adam Boqvist … Zach Werenski?

Where it could go: On track to miss the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, the Blue Jackets are stagnant and the mix of players is in question. The Merzlikins situation is top of mind, as the goalie made it clear last week that he wasn’t happy with his workload and indicated a trade to a new team would be best. But it’s not so easy to trade a $5.4 million goalie under contract for another three years, especially when he’s coming off a dreadful 2022-23. Would they retain any money for that long?

From there, if the Blue Jackets decide to blow it up again they’d have some useful players to offer up. To be sure, there is a collection of youth in place that inspires some hope — including Adam Fantilli, Dmitry Voronkov, Cole Sillinger, David Jiricek, etc — and they’ll be the core of whatever comes next. But to make room for those players to get more ice time and opportunity, Columbus will have to think about moving some other bodies out. This would also give them a chance to change up a roster that isn’t finding progress.

This management team has been in place for 11 years now, with four playoff appearances and two series wins. If anything changes at the top, it would surely increase the likelihood that Columbus would be open to turnover. The Blue Jackets should be active in some way at this season’s trade deadline, but real fireworks could happen in the summer if things don’t get better, fast.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS

The situation: First overall in the NHL on the morning of Jan. 16, the Canucks are firmly in the “buyers” category for the first time in years; the question isn’t will they be active in the market, but how active?

Though Patrik Allvin is the GM, Jim Rutherford is the experienced president of hockey operations, and he has a history of attacking the trade market well ahead of the deadline. So, within two months of the March 8 trade deadline, the Canucks are a team to watch because they could be one of the more active and aggressive teams out there.

Pieces they could trade: First-round pick, Andrei Kuzemnko, Nils Hoglander, prospects.

Where it could go: The blue line, presumed to be an area of need heading into the season, could be one target for improvement. Vancouver ranks 18th in shots against per game, and 18th in high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. But, then again, they’ve already added Nikita Zadorov in trade — not to mention the arrivals of Ian Cole and Carson Soucy in the summer and last season’s trade for Filip Hronek, a revelation — and so the blue line is actually less of a sore spot than it seemed in October.

So, attention is turning to the forward group, where it’s an open question if the Canucks will take a big swing on a top-six winger or an impact centre. There isn’t a ton of cap space for them to work with, so to make the money work Andrei Kuzmenko (a healthy scratch on several occasions) or Nils Hoglander could potentially become available — and both cracked our first top 25 trade candidates list earlier this month. Heck, what if the Canucks try and address two things at once?

Where they could come to really define the trade market in 2024, however, is if the Elias Pettersson contract situation gets muddy. Speaking to Iain MacIntyre last week, Pettersson’s agent, Pat Brisson, said negotiations “could definitely still happen” during the season after previously ruling it out until the summer. There is no reason to panic about the situation — Pettersson is having a great season and the Canucks as a team are rising as a contender — but until a deal is done, it’s not.

That looms. But until then, it’s exciting to ponder about Vancouver’s potential to light up the trade market in-season.

“We’re going to hear a lot of crazy rumours with Vancouver. I think Vancouver’s going to be the rumour centre of the NHL over the next little while,” Elliotte Friedman said on Monday’s 32 Thoughts podcast. “You’re going to start hearing a lot of things about the Vancouver Canucks.”

CALGARY FLAMES

The situation: Two years after franchise cornerstone Johnny Gaudreau left via free agency the same outcome cannot be an option for this year’s pending Flames UFAs Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev. Nikita Zadorov was also part of this group before he was sent to Vancouver earlier this season. Calgary is still hanging around the playoff picture, but these three players will be top trade candidates until any of them sign an extension.

The Flames won’t be rebuilding given contracts already invested in the likes of Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri and MacKenzie Weegar, but are at a crossroads and must re-tool in some way. While the pending UFAs are most critical to move (or re-sign) by the March 8 deadline, the Flames will also be a team to watch on the trade market into the summer, especially if they fall short of the post-season.

Pieces they could trade: Elias Lindholm, Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin, Dan Vladar, Jacob Markstrom, Dillon Dubé.

Where it could go: Though contract talks with Hanifin stalled after the Flames struggled early, the buzz is picking up again that he could, in fact, re-sign and stick around. The same cannot be said for Lindholm, who figures to be GM Craig Conroy’s most valued trade asset. Lindholm is an excellent two-way centre, the kind which doesn’t become available in-season too often and can push a team over the top. Tanev would be nice to re-sign as well, but the respected 34-year-old shutdown defender should create a market and bring a return that could be better for the organization long term.

This summer RFA Dillon Dubé is eligible for arbitration, but with vanishing ice time and declining point totals, his time could be running thin as well.

On top of their expiring contracts, the Flames could also get into the goalie market if they so choose, whether it’s offering up backup Dan Vladar or, far less likely, a franchise changer in Jacob Markstrom. Room must be made for Dustin Wolf.

ANAHEIM DUCKS

The situation: The Ducks have already been involved and, in a way, have defined one little-used corner of the trade market. Their acquisition of 2022 fifth-overall pick Cutter Gauthier for 2020 sixth-overall pick (and 125-game NHL veteran) Jamie Drysdale was a rare type of swap involving a top-end prospect who wanted out of Philadelphia.

Between Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish and Pavel Mintyukov, you can see an intriguing young core coming together in Anaheim, but the fact is they’re still probably a couple of years away from fully forming. Sitting 30th in the NHL, the Ducks are still in rebuild mode, which means veterans on expiring contracts could go. But it’s not just that — the Ducks could be a team that lights up the market.

Pieces they could trade: Adam Henrique, Ilya Lyubushkin, John Gibson, Trevor Zegras.

Where it could go: Henrique would be a great get for a contender in need of centre depth at this deadline, and Lyubushkin plays a tough style of game that is always attractive to playoff teams. Those are a given to go.

But where it really could get interesting is that the Ducks have two other trade candidates who, if moved, would perhaps shape the market for a type of player not often dealt.

Goalie John Gibson has been a regular in trade speculation for a few years, so we’d all be wise to be skeptical it will happen by March 8, 2024. Gibson has an .899 save percentage this season, but has saved three goals above expected — teams will have to grapple with his numbers in recent seasons and if they’re more a reflection of decline in the 30-year-old, or of a rebuilding team in front of him. A $6.4 million cap hit on a goalie through 2026-27 is an investment you want to be sure about, though a rising salary cap eases some of the burden. Goalies of this ilk are almost never traded, so it would be a market-setter.

The other name to watch is Trevor Zegras, currently injured and not expected back until around trade deadline time, or after. The 22-year-old centre is an exciting talent with electric skill and upside, and he’s got personality and pizzazz to add to a team. It would be hard to envision the Ducks moving him at all, but there is smoke around the player now and the list of interested teams would be long. It’s not often a 22-year-old, top-10 draft pick coming off a 65-point season is traded, but the Ducks have already made one shocking trade so far this season.

OTTAWA SENATORS

The situation: The Senators have been one of the biggest stories in the NHL this season, and not for good reasons. Everything was aligning for them to be a breakout team. They had accumulated plenty of young talent in the draft, signed them for the long term, and surrounded them with veteran experience. They missed the playoffs by just six points last season, a big step up from where they had been, and this season was supposed to be another measure of progression.

But at the halfway mark they are last in the Eastern Conference, the only one below a .400 points percentage. It’s been a tumultuous season, to say the least — from Shane Pinto getting suspended, to the coach and GM both being fired — and new owner Michael Andlauer and new GM Steve Staios seek some level of calm. There is talk that Ottawa could actually try and add further to the group, seeking “pros” aka more useful veterans. But the reality is that big questions will have to be asked about the group if they really do finish at the bottom of the barrel, and the leaders at the top are no longer the ones that brought everyone here in the first place.

Pieces they could trade: Vladimir Tarasenko, Dominik Kubalik, Jakob Chychrun…perhaps a surprise?

Where it could go: This is probably more of a long-term thing, into the summer or beyond. But the more losses pile up in Ottawa, the more the leaders at the helm have to ponder if there’s something wrong with the makeup.

“I really believe they do not want to fool around with their core yet because they think it’s too soon, but the longer this goes on…we’ve already seen they’ve changed their path so you’re foolish if you don’t think it can happen. I don’t think they want to do it, but I’m really starting to wonder what do the Senators think here?” Elliotte Friedman said on the 32 Thoughts podcast.

“Chychrun’s name came out last week and I don’t think they’re rushing to do anything like that. I do think one thing they’re figuring out is who teams like,” Friedman said. “I think they have quite a few untouchables here, but I think they wanna know ‘What do people think of our players?’”

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