NHL team tiers and expectations: Pacific Division

A month from today, the Pacific Division will be off and running. And although this grouping of teams has a clear divide between haves and have-nots, there are a couple Canadian teams caught in the middle of it that could slide extremely to one side or the other in 2023-24, depending on how they perform.

Whether it’s a repeat from Vegas, a breakthrough for Edmonton, or something of a Cinderella story from Los Angeles or Seattle, might the 2024 Stanley Cup champion come out of the Pacific Division again? Might this division also house the team that “wins” the first-overall selection?

Here’s our look at the Pacific Division as we break the teams into tiers. Once again, this is not a “ranking” per se, and those teams in the same tier are ordered alphabetically.

TOP TIER: THE DEFENDING CHAMPS

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
Key additions: None
Key subtractions: Phil Kessel, Reilly Smith, Laurent Brossoit, Teddy Blueger

Expectations: The defending champs are in a tier by themselves, and winning the Stanley Cup within owner Bill Foley’s six-year window after getting the team will provide a grace period. But, as always in Vegas, the clear expectation is to keep winning and the hope would be to snuggle a second banner beside the first one next year.

Vegas returns mostly the same, minus a few cap casualties. The leaders and big-game players all remain, though, and the Golden Knights should be in good position to strike again. Two years ago, they dealt with a ton of injuries and missed the playoffs, and it would seem that’s the only way this team would come up that short again.

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SECOND TIER: THE NEXT CHAMPS?

EDMONTON OILERS
Key additions: Connor Brown
Key subtractions: Nick Bjugstad

Expectations: While Vegas still celebrates its championship, fans in Edmonton are wondering what could have been – or what could be just around the corner. Edmonton could easily be in the same tier as Vegas because the two very much have the same ambitions this season and are the ones to beat in the Pacific. But where Vegas has broken through to win, the Oilers have bowed out to the eventual champions two years in a row.

It’s time for the Oilers to do it. All the pieces are in place, and after even the goaltending settled somewhat last season, there really aren’t many weaknesses left, though we should expect GM Ken Holland to be actively attempting to upgrade this roster in-season if the opportunity presents itself. Not just playoffs, but anything short of a deep, deep run this season would be a disappointment. They’ve dealt with their losses and learned their lessons — now it’s Edmonton’s time to try to crack Canada’s Cup curse.

THIRD TIER: CAN THEY GET OVER THE NEXT HUMP?

LOS ANGELES KINGS
Key additions: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cam Talbot
Key subtractions: Joonas Korpisalo, Gabe Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, Sean Durzi, Cal Petersen

Expectations: Just below Edmonton and Vegas sit the Los Angeles Kings, who have been eliminated by the Oilers the past two years (and by Vegas in their previous playoff appearance, in 2018). With a good base of veterans (Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty, Phillip Danault et al.) and developing youth (Quinton Byfield, Brandt Clarke et al.), Los Angeles is certainly on the rise and pushed some chips in to acquire and sign Pierre-Luc Dubois. Now with a deep collection of centres, the Kings are angling to be a nightmare matchup and perhaps a wild card to come out of this division.

After a short rebuild on the fly, the Kings have back-to-back first-round exits to build on and, after that, their expectations are becoming more urgent. Fellow Pacific Division riser — and recent expansion squad — Seattle even earned a playoff series victory last season, toppling the then-defending champion Colorado Avalanche. Though they took the wild-card route in, Seattle’s victory was no less impressive and the Kings have to be careful to not get passed during a season in which they should be pushing forward.

SEATTLE KRAKEN
Key additions: Brian Dumoulin, Kailer Yamamoto, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare
Key subtractions: Carson Soucy, Morgan Geekie, Daniel Sprong, Ryan Donato

Expectations: The Kraken improved in all sorts of areas in their second season and were rewarded not only with their first playoff appearance, but first series victory, too. Success might not be coming as quickly as it did for Vegas, but it is coming, and last season’s result has made us reshape how we view the Kraken.

Clearly separating themselves from the rest of the division, the Kraken levelled up in 2022-23 and now we have to wonder how much further they can take it as currently constructed. The reaction to their expansion draft was muted, but Year 2 proved they’re on the right track and now it’s about furthering their goals. The Kraken were a tough out a year ago, but lost players who contributed to making them so. Will the Kraken be able to hang on to this tier, or move up, after this season, or are they at risk of stepping back again?

FOURTH TIER: CAN THEY FIND THEIR WAY BACK OR IS IT ABOUT TO GO SOUTH?

CALGARY FLAMES
Key additions: Yegor Sharangovich
Key subtractions: Tyler Toffoli, Milan Lucic

Expectations: Were they bad last season, or was it bad luck? The Flames lost so many close games in 2022-23 that you could easily build a case for why they could be the bounce-back team of 2023-24. A new coach should help bring about a better dressing room experience and perhaps that fresh air is really what this team needed.

We have to believe more will come from Jonathan Huberdeau in Year 2, and that we’ll see more of what made MacKenzie Weegar one of the better Flames stories of the second half. If they get off to a good start and the likes of Mikael Backlund or Elias Lindholm re-sign early, it would go a long way toward settling the situation and keeping the core together. But a bad start, or further indications that any core players want out, and this could quickly turn into an ugly rebuild.

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VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Key additions: Teddy Blueger, Ian Cole, Pius Suter, Carson Soucy
Key subtractions: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ethan Bear

Expectations: The Canucks refuse to believe they must entertain the idea of a rebuild and insist that this core will eventually get on to something. Last season, they started with promise after Bruce Boudreau led the Canucks to a strong finish in 2021-22. This season, there is again optimism (depending on who you ask) that a full season of Rick Tocchet can really get everything out of this group.

So what is the reality here? Three straight playoff misses would seem to suggest that the 2020 team’s advancement to the second round of the playoffs was lightning in a bottle, not to be caught again. Having to trade their captain midway through last season might appear to be a move that an organization in distress has to make. But, it’s hard to give up on a roster where new captain Quinn Hughes is signed long term and, fans are hoping, Elias Pettersson inks an extension shortly. Until that happens, though, the door remains open for big change if this season goes the same as last year, or the year before, or the year before that …

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FIFTH TIER: FIND A GENIE AND WISH FOR CELEBRINI

ANAHEIM DUCKS
Key additions: Alex Killorn, Radko Gudas, Ilya Lyubushkin
Key subtractions: Kevin Shattenkirk, Maxime Comtois, Derek Grant

Expectations: Even after signing a few veterans, we all know the Ducks are still thinking long-term here as they slowly put the pieces together, perhaps with an eye on top 2024 prospect Macklin Celebrini. But, at the same time, there’s a bit of hardball being played with two key RFAs: Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale. It could be said the whole rebuild centres around those two, with Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish, and that the Ducks are playing with fire.

The road back to the playoffs will be a long one and while we’d wager that contracts are likely to get done for those players (Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported Zegras is likely a bridge deal candidate), the Ducks are risking starting without one or both. If that happens, it leaves fans without much at all.

“If the Ducks are starting this season without these guys in their lineup, what are you doing to give your fans a reason to buy a ticket?” Friedman asked on the most recent 32 Thoughts: The Podcast, episode. “Are they going to take this too far with these two guys?”

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SAN JOSE SHARKS
Key additions: Mikael Granlund, Mike Hoffman, Anthony Duclair, Filip Zadina, Jan Rutta, MacKenzie Blackwood
Key subtractions: Erik Karlsson, Noah Gregor, James Reimer

Expectations: There’s no mistaking what the Sharks are doing, confirmed as much by GM Mike Grier after he was able to find a trading partner for Erik Karlsson. That the primary part of the return was a conditional 2024 first-round pick (top-10 protected) says everything about where the Sharks are right now.

“I think the fans here are knowledgeable enough to realize what we’re doing here,” Grier told the media after the swap. “We were lucky enough to have such a long run of sustained success and playoff success and regular-season success and at some point, you have to pay the price for all that, and that’s kind of where we are in the cycle as a franchise.”

The Sharks have missed the playoffs four years in a row and are on a crash course to extend that to five. It’ll be a long road back to relevance within this division, where San Jose’s main competition are the Ducks — but are they hoping to beat them out in the standings, or hold the higher draft pick?

More from Sportsnet

NHL team tiers and expectations: Atlantic Division

One player who needs to deliver for each Pacific Division team

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